ALERT!!! CRITICAL TIMES AHEAD

ALERT!!! CRITICAL TIMES AHEAD.

Normally such warnings of doomsday are a plenty on the net.

But my warning is clearly related to the Finance field.
As the Sensex and Nifty are galloping away into the sun- there is a sense of unabashed optimism everywhere.
MFs have overtaken Insurance as investors in the market and people are headed towards MFs in throngs.
Whenever there is such optimism, there is a reason to pause and look around.I do not mean in the pessimistic way- but just caution.Most of the calamities and disasters have taken place when people were not watching enough.
So now as the market seem to be only headed in one direction I have some advice for different set of people, especially the seafarers- because it is them that I understand better.
1. Those who are young: They must NOT make any bulk purchases and must continue their regular purchases via the SIP or better still STP route. In a volatile market higher frequency of STP gives better results. So you can even switch from weekly mode to Daily mode if it is offered by your MF. i.e. if you have a 5000/- per week STP, you may change it to Rs.1000/- per day.If on monthly mode then you may go in for weekly mode. Since SIPs are offered on monthly basis- it may put you in some inconvenience to start 5 SIPs for every fund.

2. Those who are in the middle age group and about 10 years away from retirement- should review the funds in their portfolio and make a switch if required. Do not be misguided by which fund gave best returns last year or last 2 years. Go by a performance of at least 5 years. Further they should maintain the Equity to debt ratio of 75:25 or 80:20. If due to market going up the portfolio becomes heavy on Equity- then switch to the debt schemes and bring the ratio back.

3. Those who are near retirement should maintain a more conservative ratio of Eq:Debt of 60:40 but should not go below that otherwise their portfolio value may start eroding.
4. So remember to AVOID BULK PURCHASE or BULK investment even if you have a windfall or a have come across lately into large money. At such high levels even a drop of 2% in the indexes may not exactly give you value buying. So just stick to disciplined investing- it has shown to work best.
 

The Changing Times

" These are the times of Light and darkness, these are the times of hope and despair"- Dickens in his famous epic- A Tale of Two cities.

This was not said of only the times in which the novel is set, it can be said of any time in any history.Beacuse it was only the time that was always changing as also eulogised in the opening commentary of TV serial Mahabharata - " Main Samay Hoon..."

Present time is also same- no different from 20 years back or 50...or 100 or even 1000.It will continue like this too- only the people witnessing will keep changing.

For those who care to see and observe objectively- present time is no different than the era preceding the Independence date when the constitution was being written.

A slow and steady movement is taking place ... Just like the Constitution-the most important religious book is being written called the GST code.A book that will change the entire environment in which we live and breathe- and pay graft.

In the process of this GST draft being written- things have taken place which cannot be believed and a Federal form of Governance is growing deep and firm.

The centre has given away and further giving away- it's bargaining power and Authority to allocate funds to different states. This must be the only Second Magna Carta being signed.

No longer will a Montek Singh Ahluwalia have to keep a Chief Minister waiting for 2 hours to listen to his plea of funds for development.

A new and an interesting fund.

In the field of Finance and Investment , very often it is the lack of information that prevents a person from making gains...I guess it same with life.
Today while searching around for some new modes in the Large Cap space- I came across a gem- well apparently.
I searched deeper and found that it was even better than what appeared on surface.
Ladies and Gentlemen Welcome to CPSE-ETF. I had to really look around and pinch myself to believe that the fund was launched by Reliance a more than 2 years ago.
As in the case of ETF:
1.You can buy it on a stock market like shares with getting the price of your choice.
2.AMC charges are very minimal-0.07%
3.Liquidity is very high.
Such funds if in normal MF mode tend to have a risk of having too few investors.In case of ETF this may not be so, especially as the fund as an asset base of 2284 crores.
There are a few points that make it high on risk:
1. The fund is very high on risk due to concentration into very few companies- 10 at present.
2.Exposure to top company (ONGC at present ) is as high as 24.5%
3. Exposure to top sector is 77%- as the ETF has NIFTY PSE index as it's benchmark.
4.The fund largely reflects the PSU energy companies and hence is a highly specialised SECTOR fund. Thus it carries the associated risk of a sector fund.
In my opinion the fund is high on risk but for Seafarers who are well invested - they may try investing here with nimble foots and SIP way.
You will have to do it on your stock trading platform.
Last year the fund gave 5.3% higher return than the next best in Large Cap category.

Disclaimer: This is a discussion forum. So please do some research on your own too- and discuss it here. I am just proceeding to buy this thru my broker.

Financial Plan for a Young Professional

A young professional asked for a plan where:
1. He could park his 1.0 lacs for about 2.5 years.
2.Have a Emergency Fund- he wanted to know how much he should have.
3.Invest a monthly investible surplus of Rs.60k/month.
4.Save his taxes.

Maneuvering within the restrictions , this is my plan considering his background and age.

I had to plan a little more seriously for you since the time span that you have mentioned is a little short of what we call long term and a lot more than Short term.

So I will give you a plan:

• 1.       Keep the Rs.1.0lacs (of surplus) in Dynamic bond Funds (list attached). Pref. being for BSL Dynamic Bond Fund, HDFC Hi-Interest fund-Dynamic Plan; ICICI Long Term Plan- all in Growth Option and Direct Mode so that you don’t have to shell out any commissions. Dynamic Bond- this fund is as good as a saving bank account and can be redeemed and received in your bank account the next day before 10AM. The returns over 3 to 5 years in these entirely Non-Equity have been stupendous and I have reason to believe that they will give over 10% for next few years.
•  
• 2.       Now with your monthly Kitty of 60k you will proceed as follows- to invest INTO EQUITY funds through STP instead of SIP.
•  
• i)                    With the 60K of this month proceed to deposit in HDFC Cash Management Fund-Treasury Plan- GROWTH option-DIRECT mode. Having done this set up a WEEKLY STP of Rs.7500 per week into HDFC BALANCED FUND- GROWTH PLAN- DIRECT MODE. This will transfer 7500x5=37500 every month and still leave some balance for STP for next month.
• ii)                   Next month: with the next Month’s Rs.60,000 start another investment in ICICI Pru Liquid Plan-Direct Plan and at the same time set up a STP of Rs.2000 from this fund into ICICI Pru Long Term Equity (Tax Saving fund)-Growth-Direct Plan. This will take care of your investment and TAX saving at the same time. Also start a STP of Rs.3000 from ICICI Pru Liquid Plan-Growth-Direct to ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund-growth option-Direct. (So total Stp’s in this fund will be Rs.25K per month).
• iii)                 Further next month AFTER THAT  Invest your 60K in DSPBR Money Manager Fund-Growth Option-Direct. Once the Folio is created start STP of Rs.2000 per week from this fund into DSPBR Micro Cap Fund-Growth-Direct and a STP of Rs.3000 per week in DSPBR Small and Mid Cap fund-Growth-Direct.
• iv)                 In the 4^th month – again TOP up HDFC CASH Mgmt Fund. In the 5^th month Top up ICICI Pru Liquid Fund, in the 6^th month- DSPBR…ad inifinitum.
•  
• 3.       The above plan will ensure your tax saving to the max, at the same time investment in Stocks of all capitalization. In addition it will ensure that you have money available in Liquid funds at all given time. Your Liquid funds will never exhaust and your Equity investments will continue with due RISK mitigation across all market conditions.
• 4.       Even if you chose not to top up the Liquid funds- the STPs will automatically stop once the amount in Liquid funds exhausts. This will not pose any risk or legal binding on you. In ICICI once you deposit money in the source scheme of the STP , the STP will automatically start.
• 5.       I have not used the entire 60K for STPs every month , so that it lasts till you put money again into the Liquid Fund. You can divide 30k into any 2 funds every month or 20K into all 3 every month. Once you start- you will be able to judge and decide for yourself.
• 6.       You will only have to visit any of the above Mutual Fund office ONCE to start your investment. Your KYC data will be updated . Then you can start ANY investment in ANY fund from your PC- -in DIRECT mode. This will give you a saving of 1-1.2% in commission every year.
• 7.       For any other information you can visit valueresearchonline.com

Being a non-conformist and being a being a contrarian for the sake of being one are two separate things. Fighting with ghosts and shadows is not same as facing reality. Reacting to news is also not always the best recourse. There cannot be everything right with a idea or a policy- there also cannot everything wrong.Wisdom lies in appreciating the rainbow for a while but then having the capacity and intelligence to separate each and every color in your mind and be capable of admiring it too- because even a rainbow if moved at a considerable speed will only appear white.

The Demon of Demonetisation.

The Demon of Demonetisation.

People are definitely facing immense inconvenience in the face of this currency crisis (lets call it CC).Most of the people who are facing the heat are either the rich who did not bother to have a backup in form of legitimate money and non paper assets; and the Very Poor - who could not open a bank account due to various reasons.

These reasons were their lack of ID proof, not willing to lose a day's wages in going to open account etc.

But mostly it is the sniggering attitude towards the government announcements and policies.

The previous governments have made us have that attitude- because they ever used to mean what they say.

NOW... to all the readers of this piece , I ask one thing!

We the people, are aspiring to be like the residents of developed countries in terms of latest mobiles, cars, branded clothes, Single Malt Whiskey's etc. But what mediocrity we are steeped in that most of these luxuries are paid for in cash, otherwise how is it that in NCR the number of cars are more than the Income tax payees. If you are on New York airport , you cannot buy a cup of coffee with cash.

Start from morning....You consume breakfast for which you can pay by bank transfer from mobile to the friendly neighbourhood "poor" vendor. He can pay back to his dealer the same way who can pay back upwards. Next comes your taxi- which too is paid in Uber or Ola money.

I remember the movie called Police Academy II. Eddie Murphy asks the local Police Chief- " Do you have a $20 bill ". Chief replies " I'm a married man with 2 children in college, haven't seen a $20 bill in 5 years.

This is of course a joke. But on reason why inflation is going up in India and making things expensive is too much loose money chasing too few goods and services. As a result the supplier of those goods and services controls the price. Just watch in a ffew days how restaurants offer happy hours and Car mfrs offer discounts. 

Why do you think toothpastes and edible oils in the supermarkets are cheaper than the neighbourhood  Lala?

It was always the middle class who paid their taxes and took the government announcements seriously- both the other classes ignored the country and are now paying for it.

Even if we undergo a small operation on the toe it is painful.This is a major operation of the entire nation. The people who are guilty are most quiet.Once again it is the vigilant and upright middle class that is speaking out.But they are being wrongly fed with incorrect information.

By the virtue of Demonetisation of this currency , the government (or RBI to be specific) will be able to bring  or inject all those cash notes that were not in the banking system back into the system. This will enable money is available to only those to whom it rightly belongs.

It is so very fascinating to see that the premium that you paid for your second apartment,and extra money you paid wrongfully to get certain goods and services will be removed from the system-automatically.

For once the government is ahead of the unscrupulous elements. 

Don't you remember seeing your neighbors in government services getting new cars, ipads,house facelift, furnishings and expensive gadgets just before the month of March ended.

That was all your money which will come back to you- but indirectly.

Please stand up to face the hardship, after this a lot will change... and most of it will be for your good..

SHARE OF SHARES IN OUR PORTFOLIO

 SHARE OF SHARES IN OUR PORTFOLIO

In the book that I wrote for the Financial education of Seafarers I broke a few well established beliefs.
This was not on the back of any complex calculations as the modern day economists are used to coining but simply on the back of two things:
1. Common sense as applied to self.
2. The result of the risk and experience that I took and benefited.
In times when even the AMCs themselves are expounding the benefits of SIPs I advocated STPs- that too the weekly and daily types.
Another area that I tried to encroach and dispel the notion was advocating Equity diversified MFs instead of direct stocks.
I did ruffle a lot of feathers of the established brokerage firms , few of which were of good friends.
But this recommendation was based on some very simple facts:
We the merchant navy personnel have a  very intermittent stream of cash inflow in form of salary. It is mostly 6 to 7 months  year. Upto the time that we complete our last exam which could be as late as the age of 30 there are prolonged periods when income is ZERO. This is unlike the landbased people who invariably get paid for all their training and exam periods.
Hence it becomes imperative that we try to save / invest our funds in best avenues which can create a corpus for our immediate and long term needs.
I will not dwell upon the inefficient avenues like Small savings , PPF and even Insurance policies that people get sucked into.I will simply elaborate upon the smart ones who recognize the power of equity due to whatever influenced them. 
These wise men ( and I actually mean without sarcasm) start buying stocks with the help of  tips from colleagues , friends on shore or brokerage firms. Few of these stock purchases make them some profit in short term further encouraging them to pump in more funds. Our friends do learn few nuances about share purchases but largely do not learn about technical analysis of the companies.
It is in fact not easy either to learn about Equity Analysis and then confidently invest in a handful of companies based on that knowledge.
As a a result our seafarer does invest in stocks , but the quantum as a percentage of his total earning is not very large- at best I have seen about 10-15% of the salary being invested. The remaining earning stay in either NRE savings or FD accounts. Some in FCNR too. This amount which stays in Fixed returns and small savings actually works counter productive to the health of his wealth as it brings down the total return due to tax and inflation.
Now, all the stocks do not have the ability to become multi-baggers , and most of them appreciate by about 15- 30 % . If you calculate the percentage of equity in his entire portfolio, it is not even close to being noticeable.
So in effect though he has invested in equities, the asset class will hardly make any benefit to his planning. In fact we can hardly blame him, even by my own standards...
I started investing from the first year of my sea career, and since stocks were only option - I had obtained 200FCD (Fully convertible debentures ) 0f L&T. The selection was largely based on "engineering identity and compassion" since I myself was an engineer and thought that only a engineering company can help in building a country- how naive I was?
Over last 29 years , I have held my first scrip and it has paid me rich dividends and has grown more than any real estate that I could have held. Similar story about another company that I bought 10 years back because my relative worked there- has grown  39 times in 10 years.
But when I analyse them in relation to me total portfolio , they form less than 10% of the total corpus.
In addition the above 2 stocks have made you starry eyed- I have not yet told you how many stocks that I invested in have turned out duds and a large number of them have gone unlisted.
In comparison , Mutual Funds have given me a broad based selection ground. Where I can simply select 4 funds of various Capitalisation and my selection of Equity as a Asset class is complete. My money does not stay waiting for an appropriate opportunity in bank accounts.
I simply kept putting my entire salary in debt funds and created STPs into corresponding good Equity funds of those fund houses- as long as I earned. Sometimes I checked the underlying stocks in those MFs and was surprised to find companies that I had overlooked , and also a ot of companies that I had never heard of when they were listed and have turned from small caps to Mid caps and from mid caps to Large Caps in last 15-17 years.
To wrap up the argument, my case has not only been investing in Equity class but also of investing substantial and majority of the saved income. If you have proper guidance , then by all means invest in direct stocks- but ensure that the guidance is reliable and proper . How you will ensure that the guidance is proper and just- is your outlook.
If however you cannot decide if the guidance is fair and just- stick to Mutual Funds. You simply have to chose from about 10-15 Large Cap, equal No. of Mid and Small Cap and Multi cap funds.
Yes there are over 1800 funds but you don't have to go through everything - do you?