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Thursday, November 17, 2011

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE

Reply to a friend who in response to yesterday's post about decline of west- asked me- WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Hello XXXX
It’s true that the article does not tell us anything new that we don’t know.
However it is what is not written that is important.
It is the concept of Organic growth as opposed the fast track.
It is the Indian psyche to be a bit laid back and believe in the karma- we’ve been doing it and will continue to do it.
The average Indian out there still believes in the Five fold path of Buddha- even though sub consciously.
When that farmer grows groundnuts in his farm and cultivates to sell it to another man who will roast and sell it on a small cart- it will happen to be the basic step in economics. The first principle as in differential calculus. The very concept of growth will start from there.
He’s done something that the doyens of Wall street cannot do- produce a good.
After the wheels of entrepreneurship are set into motion everything will happen.
India’s strength is not it’s population but the ability of the population to give themselves job and save some money from that.
That is why in a country where we retail YSL and Chanel we can also talk of minimum daily sustainance at Rs.28.
We are headed in the right direction irrespective of the 10 crore population that will be trained by the National Training Council in next 10 years- or not.
The CEO of Franklin Templeton once said in a TV interview 12 yrs back- In India the industry starts first, then the govt. forms rules and forms the regulatory body.
It is a fact that, if we need to move ahead we’ll have to be original.
We’ll have to shake off the pre meditated conditioning that is provided in MBA colleges.
Just like Japan defined its own code of management. We’ll have to be original in our scope and outlook.
At the end of the day whatever goes up must come down (a fact of law of gravitation)- however it is often overlooked that the faster you go up, the harder you fall (I think that would be First law of Motion).
Now you can look at it either from a philosopher’s perspective, scientist’s or even a economist’s. It has to hold good.

Sorry but my talk has given me a headache- b4 it does something to you I’ll stop.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Why the decline of the West is best for us – and them. By R Vaidyanathan, Professor of Finance, IIM Bangalore.

Why the decline of the West is best for us – and them. By R Vaidyanathan, Professor of Finance, IIM Bangalore.
by Ishwar Jha on Monday, November 7, 2011 at 10:17am

Ten years ago, America had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash. Now

it has no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash. Or so the joke goes.

Only, it’s no joke. The line is pretty close to reality in the US. The

less said about Europe the better. Both the US and Europe are in

decline. I was asked by a business channel in 2008 about recovery in

the US. I mentioned 40 quarters and after that I was never invited for

another discussion.

Recently, another media person asked me the same question and I

answered 80 quarters. He was shocked since he was told some “sprouts”

of recovery had been seen in the American economy.

It is important to recognise that the dominance of the West has been

there only for last 200-and-odd years. According to Angus Maddison’s

pioneering OECD study, India and China had nearly 50 percent of global

GDP as late as the 1820s. Hence India and China are not emerging or

rising powers. They are retrieving their original position.

The dollar is having a roller coaster ride at present.

In 1990, the share of the G-7 in world GDP (on a purchasing power

parity basis) was 51 percent and that of emerging markets 36 percent.

But in 2011, it is the reverse. So the dominant west is a myth.

Similarly, the crisis. It is a US-Europe crisis and not a global one.

The two wars – which were essentially European wars – were made out to

be world wars with one English leader commenting that ‘we will fight

the Germans to the last Indian’.

In this economic scenario, countries like India are made to feel as if

they are in a crisis. Since the West says there’s a crisis, we swallow

it hook, line and sinker.

But it isn’t so. At no point of time in the last 20 years has foreign

investment – direct and portfolio – exceeded 10 percent of our

domestic investment. Our growth is due to our domestic savings which

is again predominately household savings. Our housewives require

awards for our growth not any western fund manager.

The crisis faced by the West is primarily because it has forgotten a

six-letter word called ‘saving’ which, again, is the result of

forgetting another six letter word called “family”. The West has

nationalised families over the last 60 years. Old age, ill health,

single motherhood – everything is the responsibility of the state.

When family is a “burden” and children an “encumbrance,” society goes

for a toss. Household savings have been negative in the US for long.

The total debt to GDP ratio is as high as 400 percent in many

countries, including UK. Not only that, the West is facing a severe

demographic crisis. The population of Europe during the First World

War was nearly 25 percent and today it is around 11 percent and

expected to become 3 percent in another 20 years. Europe will

disappear from the world map unless migrants from Africa and Asia take

it over.

The demographic crisis impacts the West in other ways. Social security

goes for a toss since people are living longer and not many from below

contribute to their pensions through taxes. So the nationalisation of

families becomes a burden on the state.

European work culture has become worse with even our own Tata

complaining about the work ethic of British managers. In France and

Italy, the weekend starts on Friday morning itself. The population has

become lazy and state-dependent.

In the UK, the situation is worse with drunkenness becoming a common

problem. Parents do not have control over children and the Chief Rabbi

of the United Hebrew Congregation in London said: “There are all

signs of arteriosclerosis of a culture and a civilisation grown old.

Me has taken precedence over We and pleasure today over viability

tomorrow.” (The Times: 8 September ).

Married couples make up less than half (45 percent) of all households

in the US, say recent data from the Census Bureau. Also there is a

huge growth in unmarried couples and single parent families (mostly

poor, black women). Society has become dysfunctional or disorganised

in the West. The government is trying to be organised.

In India, society is organised and government disorganised. Because of

disorganised society in the West the state has to take care of

families. The market crash is essentially due to the adoption of a

model where there is consumption with borrowings and no savings. How

long will Asian savings be able to sustain the western spending binge?

According to a recent report in The Wall Street Journal (10 October

2011), nearly half of US households receive government benefits like

food stamps, subsidised housing, cash welfare or Medicare or Medicaid

(the federal-state health care programmes for the poor) or social

security.

The US is also a stock market economy where half the households are

investors and they have been hit hard by bank and corporate failures.

Even now less than 5 percent of our household financial savings goes

to the stock market. Same in China and Japan.

Declining empires are dangerous. They will try to peddle their failed

models to us and we will swallow it since colonial genes are very much

present here. You will find more Indians heading global corporations

since India is a very large market and one way to capture it is to

make Indian sepoys work for it.

A declining West is best for the rest and also for the West, which

needs to rethink its failed models and rework its priorities. For the

rest—like us—the fact that the West has failed will be accepted by us

only after some western scholars tell us the same. Till then we will

try to imitate them and create more dysfunctional families.

We need to recognise that Big Government and Big Business are twin

dangers for average citizens. India faces both and they are two asuras

we need to guard against. The Leftists in the National Advisory

Council want all families to be nationalised and governed by a Big

State and reform marketers of the CII variety want Big Business to

flourish under crony capitalism. Beware of the twin evils since both

look upon India as a charity house or as a market and not as an

ancient civilisation.

R.VAIDYANATHAN

PROFESSOR OF FINANCE

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT

BANNERGHATTA ROAD

BANGALORE

INDIA_560076

TEL: 91-80-2699-3086

FAX:91-80-2658-4050

E mail:vaidya@iimb.erne

Thursday, October 6, 2011

OF IIT AND OTHERWISE

With unfailing regularity some member of the country’s elite wakes up and passes a comment on the IITs and IIMs. Now the poor and ignorant masses have to listen and gobble the Goebbelian truth for two reasons :
Firstly, because except the 5 odd lakh people who appear in JEE and CAT nobody knows what it takes to prepare and qualify for these exams.
Secondly , because it is always fashionable in an open society to have divergent views howsoever outlandish they maybe.
What is very interesting here is that everyone comments about the engineers and the engineering graduates in IIMs. When was the last time someone commented upon the selection procedure of medical students , or the falling standards of CAs.
This could be because of two reasons, I believe:
For a doctor, you know , he knows a little more about YOUR body than you do.So if you make too much noise – well you could be under the proverbial sword tomorrow.
This theory somehow even applies if the doctor (most of the times)ensures a wrong treatment or even kills your patient- rarely does anybody pull him to court and question his competency (at least in India).
For other professions- well you need them so much in daily life, that you really don’t know if they doing your good or bad- even if it’s a next door insurance agent who just sold you a ULIP with 35% upfront charges.
Now going back to the IIT graduates. Surprisingly everyone is concerned about the 2500 odd graduates who are entering and a few less(minus suicides) who are passing out of IITs. No one is even bothered to check that a 10 times the no. is passing out of NITs which are also publicly funded and a 100 times from the private institutions- that are not.
To talk of the IITians, people question there over zealousness of pursuing high salary jobs in the private sector both inland and offshore. This attitude is in a country where the focus on joining IAS or any less Babu department is to make that fast buck- in as less a time as possible (before Anna finds out).
We say that they have no contribution to the society. How ironic is that- when we don’t even know about the contribution of the freedom fighters in our own towns. We say that IIt graduates are too self-centred. Well try counting from Arvind Kejriwal- backwards and you’ll have a long list.
Now getting on to their poorer cousins from NIT and Private Institutions- well the public opinion will be severely dented if they found out a large no. of engineering graduates are manning the public and private sectors in not only administrative ranks but as inventors and innovators. Not only are they creating wealth for the society but contributing to the public welfare.
Incidentally the first of the known whistle blowers who was mercilessly killed was from IIT.
After making his contribution to the society people like Mr.Narayanmurthy decide to adversely comment upon the newer generation- that too miles away from homeland. We sure have a crab like habit boss- pulling down others who try to climb up the basket.
Why doesn’t Mr.Murthy contribute creatively by suggesting how the exam papers must be designed. By being on the moderators panel. At least Mr. Sibal can be credited with trying some creative steps in that direction.
The problem is that we don’t understand that an engineer is not about opening nuts n bolts and building bridges. An engineer is one of the most innovative and creative creatures developed by the society. Not only can he run the country for you, he can even make missiles, manage your fund corpus exceeding the GDP of a developing country- he can even move the governments to mind it’s step… and as Linda Goodman about Leos… if nothing else he can fix that broken doorknob if you marry him.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Season of Change II- Fallout or the Fear of Retribution

When BC Khanduri became the CM first time in Uttarakhand. He stopped all the developmental work because he first wanted all the projects to be vetted and see if any misdeeds had been conducted. Apparently the case of throwing the proverbial child out with the bath water.
Same thing has happened in case of mines issue – the SC has shut down all the mines. Now steel companies like JSW are contemplating shutting down the steel plants.
Question that comes to forefront is that will any political servant take any bold initiative if he stands under the constant threat of Damocles’ sword that he can be indicted at any time in future. Also how many decision makers will take even correct decisions for fear of retribution by some parties whose side they rightly did not take.
I have not seen anything about the graft giver in the bill. Should there not be something for the one who gives. Court has arrested topshot executives of telcom companies who could have benefitted by the decisions of the minister. OK the telcom cos. Paid in millions if not billions.
But is it any different than the 1% that every citizen pays when registering his land.
Or Rs.100 that he pays to the cop because his papers are not in order. Should he not be punished with same seriousness as the one who is receiving graft.

Saturday, October 1, 2011

The Season of Change- I

When the Anna agitation was about to take off I did not expect much resistance or attention from the government.I was also not very convinced that the fast will go as Ramdev's agitation. I was in fact just as hopeful as any Indian that the fast will go for about 7 days when the government will go down on it's knees and give into the wishes.
What happened was totally unexpected from all fronts and everyone acted as a tough and tougher nut to crack.Finally the war was won and everyone went happily their ways and their lives.
However from that very day I became very apprehensive on a lot of fronts and the apprehensions were difficult to put in a logical manner.
still writing them down is as good as sharing them.
Years before there was a movie by Nana Patekar called "KARNDHAAR". I think what I saw was a Hindi dubbed version of the original Marathi make, because this movie is never talked about in Hindi circles.
The movie however revolves around Patekar as a child who sees his father being killed by a local politician. So he himself grows into a true social worker fighting for the rights of the poor (not in Bollywood style). He is transformed by the political party into a politician and he degenerates himself into a normal politician till he causes the killing of a local adivasi. The movie ends with the close shot of the child of the deceased adivasi- in much the same way as Patekar's face when his own father was killed.
The point that struck me was that no political leader is corrupt from the beginning , neither he is a politician from birth. It is the society that teaches him to do what he becomes.
Similarly any person who assumes a public office or a job starts or must be starting with some optimism and idealism.Then it is the expectation of his family and the false pretenses of the society that lead him to go for the goodies of life.
Again the point that I'm trying to make is - that will it be possible for a person to remain clean and incorruptible if there are people to give him reason to be corrupt including his own family. Has it ever been that there has been no corruption in the society.Even Chanakya preaches the use of Daam in order to achieve his ends.

Now the second concern.Something that the members of the civil society are so proud to pronounce, the RTI.It has indeed brought a revolution of sorts into the country.One can get any information for Rs.20.
However a quick google will reveal that over 10 ACTIVE RTI activists (as they have about to be called)have been killed at point blank range.Most of these were involving high profile corruption cases in mining,forests,big contracts etc.
Now that brings around the question as to how and who will bell the cat in case of the actual Lokayukta or Lokpal.
It is a point worth considering- what made me come to this was when a few people said that Lokpal bill may not be the solution to all evils. Question in India is always the last mile connection.
We can deliver anything to any level but we fail to deliver to the last mile.
Let's hope this does not happen in case of the Lokpal.
Everything in India starts with a bang but ends with a whimper

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

MR.BARACK'S BARRACK STYLE PATRIOTISM

Obama says US will always be an AAA country, no matter what credit rating agencies say.

Now that is confidence and that is patriotism at it's best...whatever the world may say.
From the east of Atlantic to the west of Pacific , what ever the world may say- US would always be a stable country.
Unnecessary the economists and financial experts of the world keep harping on slowdown, meltdown and what not.Then they start whip lashing Bernanke for bringing in the UK royal in form of QE1 and QE2 and what not. They have the gall of criticizing his policies.
It takes more than a few economists(noble prize or not) of the world to write of the biggest economy, biggest democracy and the biggest spender.
Don't this naive people know that there is more to a country than the greenback that is worth less than the paper it is printed on.
All the TV channels get the top of the line economists who put their heads together and then pass judgement from their ivory towers.
You might be thinking that I've just been given the green card, hence I'm supporting the lop sided policies and hence I'm supporting US.
It's nothing like that.
It is just simple common sense and a bit of the sense of history.
There was this story about the wolf and the lamb drinking from the same river and wolf wanted to devour the soft and succulent lamb. No matter what explanation the lamb proffered for the wolf's miseries the wolf did have him.
Our recent neighbour and well wisher the US of A was the leading proponent of the nuclear tests of 1998.All the other countries like France, Australia and Canada put sanctions against us.
Come 2007. The subprime has hit US and Europe and rest of the world " came tumbling after" Jack and Jill- sorry US.
Now there is nothing that US makes that India needs.Not after we've been denied the cryo engine and the Super computer.World is already fighting against one common enemy.Pakistan cannot be trusted. So now we get sold the super NUCLEAR TREATY. All the US congress procedures are put aside and a few weeks before Mr.Bush demits office- we have the deal. Only a it late after we already have something from France.
Then we have Afghanistan that was razed to ground on the "deju vu" that OSAMA is hiding there.Country is down and OSAMA is no where- US says sorry and "aal izzz well".
Iraq decides to convert it's oil sold assets in Euros and is seen as getting closer to the proposed Iranian oil Bourse. How can we have two arch enemies bury their hatchets- Iraq is levelled- no WMD found- SORRY IRAQ- aal izzz well. Nothing personal , strictly business. Don't worry we'll put you back on your feet- with your oil; of course- purchased by us at price decided BY US- what else.
Still you think we can't take care of our economy. You people are really dumb.
We are a democracy- we don't make others follow it.If you want it - it'll have to be our style .
What?
How do you mean we'll always be AAA? Come on dummy we can even be AAAA after all the credit rating agencies are based in New York.
All the oil assets of Africa and Mid East belong to us- what is that- black gold.
These people will fight and will need more weapons- who will give it to them-we of course.
We may not be having sufficient gold in Fort Knox- but imagine all that gold lying idle in other economies around the world that you call "emerging markets". It's ours by design and default.We are the US of A.
Now with whatever sincerity may be dripping from his face; the actions taken under Mr.Barak Obama very easily betray the philosophy followed by that great country.

That is the Barrack style diplomacy of Mr.Barak Obama.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Today my Friend Santanu sent me this mail:

Rajeeve....I know n accept you are the total boss in MF.......Here we have been following the string about who owns a Merc(Sharda is yet to own one)...does owning a Merc make you successful...What defines success??
********************

I replied:

Correction Shantanu
I’m no boss of anything…I’ve simply been lucky to find this link and have been propagating to all those around me.
It gives me pleasure to see people making their nest egg methodically.
Success will be defined by a lot of people around us in different ways.
Batchmates are all talking about mercs etc. in a nice jesting way- they aren’t serious.
I cannot dare to talk about success because I have never and will never achieve it. Not in the conventional way.
Yes I’ve set out on my own trip to achieve a very small degree of satisfaction.
I like to put a smile on the face of those around us.
Giving education to the children, few minutes of conversation with the blind, prosthetics to the handicapped, a bit of company to the senior citizens all this gives me undisturbed 6-7 hour sleep at night - I think I’m successful with those .
True, I’ll never have the luxury of staying on a Santa Fe boulevard – but we’ve managed to create a Santa Fe in our own town where 118 of us stay nicely ensconced in a clearing surrounded by hills 360* around us.
I was really sad at not having met you when you came to Doon in May. If we would have met- you would have settled down right then and there.
My mission is to unite the residents of this society and I’m on my way.
You may be thinking that I’m doing something noble- but you’ll be surprised to see and hear what all my friends with only fraction of your and my salary are doing for the underprivileged .
If we achieve all these alternate goals in our lifetime- I think we’ll be successful.
There is this lone resident of Villa No.1 called VERA. She walked to our house the other day and invited us for her 86th birthday.
What is the point of my having a longlife of 85 years if you aren’t there to share it with me- that’s my motto.
I pray to god that all of us are able to invite each other on our 85th birthdays- even if we don’t meet for our 25th year of passing out.
Pls check following on Facebook, we’ve just created it: RAJPUR ROAD ENCLAVE
I think before I go “overboard”- I must stop


-----
BTW I still drive a princely wagon R ( of course this is the 3rd WR in a row). Not that I don’t want to own a SUV, but I feel very guilty pushing pedestians and cyclists off the road and pushing them into nooks and corners when I manipulate the narrow lanes of Dehardun which they call roads and highways and give them fancy names. After all they also have a right to a small place on the earth where they walk.
As an afterthought I can say success is to be able to die smiling without any ailments or regrets.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

FMPs V/S CRICKET

Chief Sarda

As I had pointed out earlier gambling in investment market gives the thrill of a ODI.
However with England leading by 230 and 7 wickets stronger- it has a lesson for both of us.
1. Shift the gambling to betting in cricket and stick with regular Vanilla type investing.
Ab, as per Sanatani boss, “xxxx hona bhi band ho gaya hai”.
So give up the tantrums of twenty year olds. They have life ahead.
We only have lifetime of savings- lets safeguard them.

INVESTMENT FUNDA 2011.01.01

There was a mail from my batch mate this morning,
Quote-
Hi all,

FMP when invested from NRI account , the TDS which is deducted is claimed when u file yr nri returns. cant find a better investment than this one from the NRI account.Hassle free and almost 9 - 10% returns from NRI account.

Any special comments on this one.

The other good one I am finding is ULIPs , better than Mutual funds. you have the option of switching over , and have managed to switch over twice at 5700 Nifty levels and back again at 5500 , if can catch downwards 500 points on the Nifty you are already making 10% , this is on top of what the market is giving you year on year. This is normally done online , In case of Mutual funds you keep thinking kab bechoge , when money will come in account and when u will buy again , and if u keep on sitting on yr bum , then market keeps moving in a range and u r still there , kya bolte ho.

daily ki satte baazi to chalti rehti hai.
Das: Long time no fwds , ki ho gaya , kaam karne lag gaya hai kya......

Kaushik: kahan ho aaj kal , apna to route more or less Indonesia - Korea hai.
Kya bolte ho bhai log , how much lead will England take today , my bet is not more than 175.

***************************************
As it so happened England is presently with a lead of 236 and still going strong with 7 wickets in hand.
Now moving on to more important things, as I replied to him:Hi Vivek

1. Point regarding FMP is well taken. However if you invest for a period of more than 1 year in BSL Dynamic Bond Fund/ HDFC Cash management Fund Treasury option etc your returns will not be too different. With the added option of liquidity. In HDFC CMF you have just one day of lock in period. The former has returned 9.4 % return over 5 years and latter about 7.5%. Not too bad for a NRI. I’m getting my automatic refunds from IT every year.
2. Regarding ULIP – Sanatani has been quite vocal and I agree with him 110%. In fact after all these years why wste money even in any insurance- I’m sure our families can be comfortable even without the premium of Term Insurance . Because most of the insurances are as it is void with most of the international waters being declared as Piracy Infested. They’ll not pay a penny.
3. Finally about MFs. Pls do not, repeat do not ,churn . With a daily STP or a SIP of about 10000 (yes 10K) the returns in the right kind of funds will be enormous and will be effected by about 2-3 % over 10 years if you use too much brains and churn. Do that with your stocks if you like but not from investment point of view- only for the thrill of a ODI.
4. There is something called IRR (internal rate of return) which is very complex to calculate. But it is always in favour of an investor who puts in money very very regularly and during a fall puts MORE money.
5. The main question is when to sell? Start selling about 3 years before you retire (when is that???).In our case you can start selling methodically even after you retire since the debt corpus shall look after the period of any upheavals in the market. With the market like this one you can never time it. Check the chart of last 365 MDA and you’ll find that it was very easy to take the right steps only 2 months after the market would have moved.
6. Another very good suggestion that I can give is invest in NIFTY BEES and JUNIOR BEES. ETFs which can be more closely followed and traded the way you are intending to do. BUY low and sell high. Believe me you can do much better there. Of course not if you are deep into derivatives in which case your auditory nerves would have already closed to saner advice


BSKMH

Thursday, July 14, 2011

The Totalitarian Government 1

64 years is not a long time in the history of a nation.
However it is a longtime for historians to observe and compare various regimes and also the changing moods of times.
Not today, perhaps a few decades later we will be able to compare various politicians and times and appreciate how times changed slowly but definitively.
My generation was not there at the time of independence, however we were witness to various important events.Like the first time ever emergency in the country, censorship of the press and finally first time ever non congress government.All the set tenets of democracy that we were taught in school were challenged and they fell easily like a pack of cards.
The next decade was spent in machinations by congress and a non existent opposition with a lot long standing pillars of democracy falling.
However amongst all this there was a show, a put on by Mrs. Indira Gandhi since she was the de facto single one (wo)man government.At least she showed that she was pro people and pro poor.She seized every opportunity presented and made it appear that the government was listening.
The next decade was also dedicated to congress where the process of nation building and breaking down of the socialist fabric of the country took place.
Then various coalitions along with BJP and congress tried to put up a brave front.
However during the present tenure some very disturbing trends have taken place.
Various ministers appear to have become parallel power centers and seem to be overreaching their mandates and briefs. In fact they are mandated by the Party President- who is acting above the PM.
Furthermore, the ministers make it appear that they are ruthless in their approach and dealings with the the public. Never has any government shown a medieval feudalistic behavior more than the present one.
I have been an ardent fan of the present PM since he could be considered as the architect of modern and economically stronger India.
Unfortunately not only has he indicated a dumb and a muted approach towards various issues but also a lack of understanding of the current politik.
The absolute brazenness with which various ministers approach the problems of the general- public is amazing.
When the report card of any professional is viewed first look is always taken at the basic job fulfillment and later at the amount of resources that have been used and with what efficiency. In the case of our esteemed gentleman there is no sense in talking about fulfillment of the basic job with the FM unable to contain the finances,inflation and price rise. Minster of development unable to build roads.Agriculture minister unable to control supply and prices.On top of it everyone is going around generating controversies in fields totally unrelated to their ministries.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

FEEDBACK ON BLACKMONEY TO THE GOVERNMENT

Following email has been created by the MOF for getting nations’ feedback on black money, penalties involved in case of tax avoidance etc.
bm-feedback@nic.in
Now that creates a very interesting case.
Knowing the way government operates it is difficult to imagine that it will not try to be vindictive against the citizens who give positive response for black money.
The point is out of the people having access to email system how many are actually NOT paying income tax due to being below the taxable income level.
Which also means that how many of the people who have reasons to not pay tax on their income will be actually giving any feedback on email and ask govt. to penalize the evaders.
Now the category of these people will be very small and will include almost all small businessmen, all big businessmen, all politicians, bureaucrats , gangsters, hawala dealers, property dealers, property sellers ( that will include ALL lower and medium class citizens who cannot sell without receiving part of the proceeds in black).
Now how many of us does that leave?
My daughter told me that when the constitution was being drafted - the citizens used to given the option of commenting on various articles in discussion.
I think that was a different case.
More important is why did the government not put up the new DIRECT TAX CODE for discussion to the citizens.May be it would have got a better response.

Monday, May 30, 2011

MODESTY (finally)BLAZE(ING) AWAY

The people of my generation may be familiar with the comic strip Modesty Blaize.
Though it had nothing to do with the quality that is hidden in the name,still it reminds me of a quote that I read sometime ago:
"Modesty has something weird about it. You've lost it the moment you think you have it."
Today's papers have featured the much later noted quality of Puyol the Barcelona Captain and Dhoni who preferred to have the sidelights instead of the limelight.
It is well known how Amitabh Bachhan has almost perfected the art of magnanimity and modesty to a fault.Never has he posed to have taken the credit of any of his film successes or KBC or anything.Even publicly accepting his failures and financial duress brought about by his financial ignorance has become legendary.
He has never ever called himself a superstar- he just calls himself an Artist unlike SRK.
Same has been the case with Dhoni.
All these public personalities are bringing about changes in the Indian psyche- that had become warped by the faulty influences of the west (read American).
It is also an irony of sorts that the American thinkers who gave the concept of modern management to the world and kept harping about team work and team spirit were the ones who brought about the culture of "I" or I-ism as we can call it.
It is always I did this, I achieved this for my company. Their arrogance was amply rewarded by fat bonuses by bosses who agreed that it was indeed "he" who did it.

This was indeed also reflected on the field where slowly the fine art of slices and cuts in cricket, tennis and soccer gave way to hard and power shots.This was accompanied with words like killing instinct, ruthlessness.The words did not belie the spirit of the sportsman.
While doing prayanama I have learnt and doing anulom-viloma very fast and forcefully gives rise to one's ego and reverses the changes that pranayama was supposed to bring about.
Speaking in the spirit of holicism- they are all connected.
Breathing hard while living normally will bring about anger,anguish,jealousy,depression etc.
Now I'm not preaching that all the sportsmen should start breathing slowly, but prior to their games in the dressing room they are always told to breathe deeply.How does that explain the western thinking of doing everything fast and shallow.
Fast food, fast exercises,power yoga,pop music etc.
We had simple yoga, slow breathing,slow eating and no aggression.
It's possible that we have not achieved what the west has , but we don't try to make a virtue of what we have either.In fact so strong is our spirit of self flogging that it hurts.
The kind of leadership that Dhoni is expressing will have very strong connotations in the otherwise emotionally starved country.With the prominent families of the countries like Reliance, Gandhi,Modis (remember?)etc showing gross distrust of their own families do not leave much for the public to emulate. Now that the bar has been moved by FEW GOOD MEN- I'm sure it will pervade down to the starving public.
It'll probably start like the cult of touching feet that has restarted in the Indian life courtesy the television.

THE INIMITABLE INDIAN WOMAN

Yesterday I was with a colleague of mine for lunch.
While my friend was away at a class for some HOLISTIC course (now how can I complain about that!), his wife was preparing the lunch.
All soaked with the tears generated by the onions she was cutting,the oil fumes from the frying- she was regularly being disturbed by the mobile phone.
Always emerging from the kitchen with a smile - she was patiently taking the calls and giving elaborate instructions to whoever was calling.
Knowing that she was a homemaker I was intrigued as to who she is talking and giving almost corporate like instructions.
Slowly as we slipped into a conversation she told me was the new President for the local chapter of Rotary club.She was planning some event for the induction ceremony.
I'm sure my face did not hide the dismay and various feelings that were adequately being reflected.
Here was a man no different than me doing something that was to improve himself after an arduous tour of duty.
On the other hand was a lady who like any seafarer's better half has brought up the entire family on her own steam.She is handling the college admission of her son and simultaneously an important social event for an international body- from the confines of her kingdom and the comfort of her kitchen while making a great Bhindi dish and other equally sumptuous dishes that so effortlessly seem to be ornamenting an Indian dining table.
I did congratulate myself for being born a male- for it would not have been easy if I was to be born in the shoes of any of these ladies.
Now I can comfortably get away by appreciating their cooking and writing a few good lines for them.

Friday, May 27, 2011

When I had created this blog , I had set out to explain "the world according to garp"(a book from the seventies)- I mean the world as I saw it.
I had hoped to put forward my point as to how the different aspects in a person's life are not as random as we think but are very closely connected.
It is not a rare accident that he gets to be born where he has no choice,studies in a place and in a way that he barely can control (right upto higher education)- then pursue a career that he has no aptitude for.
So far it was alright but hence on the way his physical health and spirit keeps up with him is in the same pattern that he has been destined or he has designed himself and.
The way that he will create wealth and succeed in it (or not), the type of illnesses that he will encounter; the way he will keep and raise his family will all have a single thread running thru. This thread will be the most natural thing when viewed in totality.If you fail to see this thread you will only see randomness.
It is this thread that is referred to as HOLICISM - or about the WHOLE.
It is very important for everyone to recognise this thread and try to bring about all the actions (taken and proposed) to be connected with this thread.
I do not mean that one has to conform to a pattern thruout his life - but simply recognise in everything that he does and happens to him.
All the philosophers from Socrates to Buddha have given philosophies so that this thread could be identified.
Buddha called it the five fold Madhyam marg.
Which I feel is very appropriate as much later even Shakespeare acknowledged (not that we care about his endorsement)- "It is no means to be in the means".
I still feel that I haven't written all that want to write- but considering what I'm thinking - this much is sufficient.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

THE SOCIALIST AMERICA (U.S.)

Strange are the ways of god.
Strange are the ways of those who follow that god.
Even stranger are the ways of those who advertise their trust in THAT god on their currency.
A country that victimized a large no. of it's citizens in the 50's and 60's on the pretext of being communist.
Is giving into equitable distribution of wealth...Ayn Rand must surely be turning in her grave.
Today POP Obama declared that he will endeavor to make Healthcare affordable for it's seniors and underprivilged.So that it's citizens don't have to go to Mexico and INDIA.
Quite a noble step for a nobel prize winner.However not when he adds in the next breath that he will tax the rich more in order to collect more tax and intends to bring about a legislation by July.
I don't have anything against a leader in trying to get his country out of trouble - when it means doing away with all the "isms' and simply trying common sense.

What it does remind me is a quote by Hegel:
There is no system, no idea that is permanent.Every system or idea breaks down and combines with it's antisystem to form a quasi stable system which lasts for another period till it discovers and forms another unstable system, which will last for some time.
In our very short life span we have already seen the downfall of UK,rise and fall of EU, CRASH of USSR, actual fall of the Berlin wall... what else?
I also read somewhere that no currency has ever lasted for 100 years.(Don't be fooled the modern dollar is only 50 years old when it was taken off the gold standard).
If that is right the $ is in for even a meteoric crash in the next 10 years ...if not earlier.





By the way Google still hasn't accepted Obama as it's normal dictionary entry, it shows up red when typed.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

FAKE LICENSING IN AVIATION

It's one thing to invite public opinion in these matters and quite different to know what goes on.
Shipping is an elder brother to aviation in more ways then one.Most of the things including uniforms,technical vocabulary has been taken from Navigation and Engineering part of shipping.
In India itself the qualifying exams for various grades have been and are very tough, and that sends people to UK and Singapore where they are relatively easy. However that is not to say that the Indian Licenses command less respect in the shipping circles.Indians are in the top 3-4 nationalities in terms of salary.
The reason why exams are tough in India is because the surveyors are quite out of touch with the latest and ask questions about systems which are obsolete.However that is no more and the exams structure has been modernised in keeping with world trends. The present DG has brought about transparency in the system . However the surveyors who finally pass the candidates always keep a mental quota of the passout, just like CA or ICWA.However it is called M.O.T.(Matter of Time)- and everyone manages to pass in a proper way. We did have cases of fake licenses itself all over the world but that is history with new STCW conventions.
So finally to say that nothing can change without will to change.-

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

TITBITS WITH BATCH MATES

We the batchmates of the Class of '86- have something in common- and that is not just age.It is the common 1460 days spent together in common environment.
The bond still holds strong(at least some of us).
Even being of the same age I have learnt so much from each of them- and most of it about life.
A difference of class and families that existed on 7th Dec 1982 vanished overnight and what emerged was a common comradeship that got defined only by our attitude to life and each other.
Probably people like John Kuruvilla, Thapar , Sanatani and the inimitable Hrishi will never know how they positively influenced my life. How, not they, but their bringing up helped ME change my thought process and mould my attitude to life.. A whole aspect of life...and that's the truth.
Growing up must be a collective process of various inputs. A healthy companionship is one of them…and today when Pradeep wrote about his daughter it triggered a very strong sense of a common feeling and common life inflexion point once again.
This phase is one of the most enjoyable and introspective when we know what exactly our progeny is thinking.
How can they think different about life than what we did 28 years back.
However since their life will also depend upon what we (did or did not) taught them. Does it not say that somehow the values commonly learned and adhered to by all of us are being transferred to our children.
So do they also not have some common thinking platform howsoever small it may be.

I think time has come when we must meet with or sans our children but definitely with our better halves to talk and talk and talk. Without any expectations from the meeting. Even if it does not mean 118 but just 18 or 8 … we must.
************************


Hi, Rajeeve,

Why the doubt came to my mind was that there is only one cable overhead from
where electricity is transferred, hence it has to be single phase. Since it
is all 11KV lines, it has to be AC. Then to use a single phase induction
motor for such high load looks improbable. So how do they manage.

With regards to my daughter, she is in a age when she is supposed to feel
she knows everything and she can give me a funda or two.

B/Regards

K.Pradeep

years
******************************

Just on a different note, Does electric locomotives have single phase/ three
phase motor, A/c or D/c and what could be the actual voltage on the motors.
Apologies to Mr. Saha.
********************************
Hi Pradeep

Last I checked the Motors used to be DC but in India over the last decade
and a half there was a changeover to AC.

Elsewhere in the world the change is almost complete.

I remember being told how the pantograph used to change at VIRAR from AC to
DC.

The rectifiers also used to be big serious stuff(some mercury rectifiers).

Of course now Maglev trains are rewriting technical history.

Looks like somebody's son is giving 'someone' tuff time.

Check out this site:

railway-technical.com/drives

Friday, February 25, 2011

A Story and .... a story!!!

There was a rich man in a locality (for a change we'll not call it a village).
He wasn't rich in the beginning but due to his hard work and diligence he slowly gained wealth and name for himself.
His achievements were expressed in form of his house which slowly grew in the locality both in terms of height and splendor (since it could not grow in area- there was restriction by other houses).
The prosperity grew with time as did the family as he had 4-5 sons (I don't know why no daughters).
Then as is supposed to happen with people - whether rich or poor, big or small- he died- suddenly .
Now that the old man was away ,the sons were left to their own devices with their own families.The families started having their own strategies and finally decided to part their ways - partitioned their splendid house. Then within the limits of their smaller mental divisions called houses they started doing their own things.
This included back biting against each other, plotting, cross plotting etc. etc.
First the wives didn't get along then the children and finally the brothers themselves fell apart.
The mental boundaries of their houses became physical and the boundaries were not really equal.
The big brother managed to get the biggest piece.
Slowly with time each of them went about their own business independently, however not without having periodic skirmishes.
Sometimes the venting of their emotions spilled over to the neighbors as well who tried to mediate.
Some of the neighbors in all their goodwill even advised them to keep weapons and guards.
Amidst all this each brother went about his own business- some flourishing- some not.
One of the brothers raised the walls of his own house so that he could seclude himself from his inferior siblings.
The siblings tried their best to bring him down by attacking him physically and socially.
There came a day when the world declared the elder brother as the richest man in town.
He was given a warm reception by civic authorities where his brothers were also invited.
The mayor called the brother up on stage and felicitated him of being the richest man in town.
However the elder brother stopped him and said that all of his brothers present there were together the richest family in the state, and must be all felicitated together...

...then somehow the ship took a roll and I got up...
the story that I had dreamed took the shape of so many families in town..city..state..country...AND FINALLY COUNTRIES.
I though about the BIG BROTHER that we are spoken of as...
Our much touted status as richest country by 2050.
I wondered if the younger brothers would ever let us be there.
..and even if we're there, will it be worth it under the fear of something happening at the hands of unknown...
...just thinking

Thursday, February 24, 2011

INDIA -NO.1 SUPERPOWER BY 2050

WHOAAAAAAA!!! That was a headline screaming from one of the prominent papers website.
The statement being attributed to CITI.
Quite a tall statement coming from an institution that had to be saved from bankruptcy.Immediately after the same one and got entangled with a scam involving HNIs.
Doesn't matter who they are as long as the make the right statement.
Something that makes us feel grand and croaky .
Something that makes me take the credit of something that will happen 40 years from today when I'm (better) dead and gone.
Something that puts me fast asleep on my 25000 buck mattress on a 40000 bed in a 1.5 crore house (that's on a 25 year loan).
Something that makes me feel grand in the false hope of a propaganda - that we are great- and believing it all the same.
We were always great right back to 5000 yrs of history- don't believe it - read your history book man (even if I flunked mine 30 yrs back).Ya we were great right in the times of that guy- you know who had his capital in what we call a BIMARU state today.
..Sure sure we were great and would have still been if the muslims didn't come and stop our growth. Later if the British didn't come and make us slave and had taken our wealth and put it up on display at tower of London.
Where today I have to shell out 15GBP to see MY own Kohinoor.
Oh sure we could still have been great.
Reservation... what reservation. Oh that ya if it hadn't been for that may be we could have been greater much faster.
Poverty... where.Not any longer.Now everyone has bread to eat and even cake and Pizza and Mcburgers.What poverty?
Come on don't be impressed by those street urchins who crowd around you when you come out of McD- they just represent the underbelly of the country.They are not mainstream guys .
They are not going to be in our Riches story.
They'll just be a parallel system.
Parallel? As in ....................Black Money Economy.
Well haven't you heard so much of OUR black money stashed away with the Swiss, couldn't really stop us from becoming great. We have reached our heights haven't we.
Don't worry about all these distractions.
We'll be great and even greater. We'll beat Japan to 3rd spot in just next 4 years.
YES! JAPAAN. That country that is known for it's strong patriotic sense. Just imagine, we'll be better than them.
You see they reached their height by 1990 in just 45 years and became the highest GDP country.
Then I don't know what happened, why their own country became expensive for them.
They couldn't buy their own stuff. The economy became stagnant. The Last decade was called as THE LOST DECADE for them.
I don't know all that nitty gritty. These economists have a knack of always putting a pin in your balloon.
Sure we'll be THE NO.1 ECONOMY by 2050. APJ had also said so.
Then all our problems will be solved.
There'll be no crime, no rapes, no scams, no swindling, no corruption, no female infanticide or foeticide (I don't know why they have so difficult words - just call it KILLING HER).
Well there'll be none of it. No black money either.
Then?
THEN.What Then? Why do you always keep saying THEN!!!
You become No.1, you become No.1.
It's great to be No.1- just like US is today (minus it's problems).
UK (minus it's POOR senior citizens).
Germany minus it's deficit.
Greece...Spain..Portugal... all those countries man. Just like they were great and No.1 we're going to be also there.

Not now but may be then we'll even start loving our country.. and be faithful to it.
We'll start being more sensitive to our fellow countrymen (and countrywomen too).
We'll start getting up in the bus to give them seats or holding their packets while they board and getdown/.
We might be sensitive to those street urchins outside McD.
We might stop spitting (and urinating) on the road and outside the public urinals.
We might stop littering our streets, wasting water, stealing electricity and taxes.

... of course we might even stop killing the babes too.

All that glitters ... can be SILVER too...

In the field of investment there are always people and interests that divert the general attention of the public in one direction and take a different take altogether.
Gold took it's present shine from 2007 onwards (from about $650 onwards).
However when MF were busy peddling the Gold ETFs and portfolio managers busy in recommending Gold as the hedge to their portfolio.
There was another class of people who were busy collecting Silver as their hedge ...
Silver has less than half the known reserves as that of gold.
Considering that it has about 3 times the industrial uses - it's more definite to run out faster than gold.
Now that it has had a massive run up in 2010 of about 68%,the news was released for mass consumption. So now the general public will start buying.
since silver ETFs are still not in force- it'll be still some time before you and me can buy some 10kg of silver.
By the time that happens (ETFs are floated)-silver would have run up further.
However general public may derive satisfaction from the presence of another instrument called e-silver.
This is floated by NATIONAL SPOT EXCHANGE and one needs to open a separate demat account there. Once done you can buy e-Gold, e-silver ,e-Copper and E-Lead.
The minimum 1 unit of E-Silver is 100gms and as of today was Rs.5104(up from Rs.4400 a month back).You can imagine that on the back of a falling stock market.
So you can start buying a unit at a time and build even a safer haven for hedging your risk.
There is even a advantage in buying these 4 commodities- if required you can MATERIALISE them. i.e. you can ask for the actual commodity at select centers in the country (India)if you like. That of course may never happen to you.