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Thursday, November 17, 2011

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE

Reply to a friend who in response to yesterday's post about decline of west- asked me- WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Hello XXXX
It’s true that the article does not tell us anything new that we don’t know.
However it is what is not written that is important.
It is the concept of Organic growth as opposed the fast track.
It is the Indian psyche to be a bit laid back and believe in the karma- we’ve been doing it and will continue to do it.
The average Indian out there still believes in the Five fold path of Buddha- even though sub consciously.
When that farmer grows groundnuts in his farm and cultivates to sell it to another man who will roast and sell it on a small cart- it will happen to be the basic step in economics. The first principle as in differential calculus. The very concept of growth will start from there.
He’s done something that the doyens of Wall street cannot do- produce a good.
After the wheels of entrepreneurship are set into motion everything will happen.
India’s strength is not it’s population but the ability of the population to give themselves job and save some money from that.
That is why in a country where we retail YSL and Chanel we can also talk of minimum daily sustainance at Rs.28.
We are headed in the right direction irrespective of the 10 crore population that will be trained by the National Training Council in next 10 years- or not.
The CEO of Franklin Templeton once said in a TV interview 12 yrs back- In India the industry starts first, then the govt. forms rules and forms the regulatory body.
It is a fact that, if we need to move ahead we’ll have to be original.
We’ll have to shake off the pre meditated conditioning that is provided in MBA colleges.
Just like Japan defined its own code of management. We’ll have to be original in our scope and outlook.
At the end of the day whatever goes up must come down (a fact of law of gravitation)- however it is often overlooked that the faster you go up, the harder you fall (I think that would be First law of Motion).
Now you can look at it either from a philosopher’s perspective, scientist’s or even a economist’s. It has to hold good.

Sorry but my talk has given me a headache- b4 it does something to you I’ll stop.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Why the decline of the West is best for us – and them. By R Vaidyanathan, Professor of Finance, IIM Bangalore.

Why the decline of the West is best for us – and them. By R Vaidyanathan, Professor of Finance, IIM Bangalore.
by Ishwar Jha on Monday, November 7, 2011 at 10:17am

Ten years ago, America had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash. Now

it has no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash. Or so the joke goes.

Only, it’s no joke. The line is pretty close to reality in the US. The

less said about Europe the better. Both the US and Europe are in

decline. I was asked by a business channel in 2008 about recovery in

the US. I mentioned 40 quarters and after that I was never invited for

another discussion.

Recently, another media person asked me the same question and I

answered 80 quarters. He was shocked since he was told some “sprouts”

of recovery had been seen in the American economy.

It is important to recognise that the dominance of the West has been

there only for last 200-and-odd years. According to Angus Maddison’s

pioneering OECD study, India and China had nearly 50 percent of global

GDP as late as the 1820s. Hence India and China are not emerging or

rising powers. They are retrieving their original position.

The dollar is having a roller coaster ride at present.

In 1990, the share of the G-7 in world GDP (on a purchasing power

parity basis) was 51 percent and that of emerging markets 36 percent.

But in 2011, it is the reverse. So the dominant west is a myth.

Similarly, the crisis. It is a US-Europe crisis and not a global one.

The two wars – which were essentially European wars – were made out to

be world wars with one English leader commenting that ‘we will fight

the Germans to the last Indian’.

In this economic scenario, countries like India are made to feel as if

they are in a crisis. Since the West says there’s a crisis, we swallow

it hook, line and sinker.

But it isn’t so. At no point of time in the last 20 years has foreign

investment – direct and portfolio – exceeded 10 percent of our

domestic investment. Our growth is due to our domestic savings which

is again predominately household savings. Our housewives require

awards for our growth not any western fund manager.

The crisis faced by the West is primarily because it has forgotten a

six-letter word called ‘saving’ which, again, is the result of

forgetting another six letter word called “family”. The West has

nationalised families over the last 60 years. Old age, ill health,

single motherhood – everything is the responsibility of the state.

When family is a “burden” and children an “encumbrance,” society goes

for a toss. Household savings have been negative in the US for long.

The total debt to GDP ratio is as high as 400 percent in many

countries, including UK. Not only that, the West is facing a severe

demographic crisis. The population of Europe during the First World

War was nearly 25 percent and today it is around 11 percent and

expected to become 3 percent in another 20 years. Europe will

disappear from the world map unless migrants from Africa and Asia take

it over.

The demographic crisis impacts the West in other ways. Social security

goes for a toss since people are living longer and not many from below

contribute to their pensions through taxes. So the nationalisation of

families becomes a burden on the state.

European work culture has become worse with even our own Tata

complaining about the work ethic of British managers. In France and

Italy, the weekend starts on Friday morning itself. The population has

become lazy and state-dependent.

In the UK, the situation is worse with drunkenness becoming a common

problem. Parents do not have control over children and the Chief Rabbi

of the United Hebrew Congregation in London said: “There are all

signs of arteriosclerosis of a culture and a civilisation grown old.

Me has taken precedence over We and pleasure today over viability

tomorrow.” (The Times: 8 September ).

Married couples make up less than half (45 percent) of all households

in the US, say recent data from the Census Bureau. Also there is a

huge growth in unmarried couples and single parent families (mostly

poor, black women). Society has become dysfunctional or disorganised

in the West. The government is trying to be organised.

In India, society is organised and government disorganised. Because of

disorganised society in the West the state has to take care of

families. The market crash is essentially due to the adoption of a

model where there is consumption with borrowings and no savings. How

long will Asian savings be able to sustain the western spending binge?

According to a recent report in The Wall Street Journal (10 October

2011), nearly half of US households receive government benefits like

food stamps, subsidised housing, cash welfare or Medicare or Medicaid

(the federal-state health care programmes for the poor) or social

security.

The US is also a stock market economy where half the households are

investors and they have been hit hard by bank and corporate failures.

Even now less than 5 percent of our household financial savings goes

to the stock market. Same in China and Japan.

Declining empires are dangerous. They will try to peddle their failed

models to us and we will swallow it since colonial genes are very much

present here. You will find more Indians heading global corporations

since India is a very large market and one way to capture it is to

make Indian sepoys work for it.

A declining West is best for the rest and also for the West, which

needs to rethink its failed models and rework its priorities. For the

rest—like us—the fact that the West has failed will be accepted by us

only after some western scholars tell us the same. Till then we will

try to imitate them and create more dysfunctional families.

We need to recognise that Big Government and Big Business are twin

dangers for average citizens. India faces both and they are two asuras

we need to guard against. The Leftists in the National Advisory

Council want all families to be nationalised and governed by a Big

State and reform marketers of the CII variety want Big Business to

flourish under crony capitalism. Beware of the twin evils since both

look upon India as a charity house or as a market and not as an

ancient civilisation.

R.VAIDYANATHAN

PROFESSOR OF FINANCE

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT

BANNERGHATTA ROAD

BANGALORE

INDIA_560076

TEL: 91-80-2699-3086

FAX:91-80-2658-4050

E mail:vaidya@iimb.erne

Thursday, October 6, 2011

OF IIT AND OTHERWISE

With unfailing regularity some member of the country’s elite wakes up and passes a comment on the IITs and IIMs. Now the poor and ignorant masses have to listen and gobble the Goebbelian truth for two reasons :
Firstly, because except the 5 odd lakh people who appear in JEE and CAT nobody knows what it takes to prepare and qualify for these exams.
Secondly , because it is always fashionable in an open society to have divergent views howsoever outlandish they maybe.
What is very interesting here is that everyone comments about the engineers and the engineering graduates in IIMs. When was the last time someone commented upon the selection procedure of medical students , or the falling standards of CAs.
This could be because of two reasons, I believe:
For a doctor, you know , he knows a little more about YOUR body than you do.So if you make too much noise – well you could be under the proverbial sword tomorrow.
This theory somehow even applies if the doctor (most of the times)ensures a wrong treatment or even kills your patient- rarely does anybody pull him to court and question his competency (at least in India).
For other professions- well you need them so much in daily life, that you really don’t know if they doing your good or bad- even if it’s a next door insurance agent who just sold you a ULIP with 35% upfront charges.
Now going back to the IIT graduates. Surprisingly everyone is concerned about the 2500 odd graduates who are entering and a few less(minus suicides) who are passing out of IITs. No one is even bothered to check that a 10 times the no. is passing out of NITs which are also publicly funded and a 100 times from the private institutions- that are not.
To talk of the IITians, people question there over zealousness of pursuing high salary jobs in the private sector both inland and offshore. This attitude is in a country where the focus on joining IAS or any less Babu department is to make that fast buck- in as less a time as possible (before Anna finds out).
We say that they have no contribution to the society. How ironic is that- when we don’t even know about the contribution of the freedom fighters in our own towns. We say that IIt graduates are too self-centred. Well try counting from Arvind Kejriwal- backwards and you’ll have a long list.
Now getting on to their poorer cousins from NIT and Private Institutions- well the public opinion will be severely dented if they found out a large no. of engineering graduates are manning the public and private sectors in not only administrative ranks but as inventors and innovators. Not only are they creating wealth for the society but contributing to the public welfare.
Incidentally the first of the known whistle blowers who was mercilessly killed was from IIT.
After making his contribution to the society people like Mr.Narayanmurthy decide to adversely comment upon the newer generation- that too miles away from homeland. We sure have a crab like habit boss- pulling down others who try to climb up the basket.
Why doesn’t Mr.Murthy contribute creatively by suggesting how the exam papers must be designed. By being on the moderators panel. At least Mr. Sibal can be credited with trying some creative steps in that direction.
The problem is that we don’t understand that an engineer is not about opening nuts n bolts and building bridges. An engineer is one of the most innovative and creative creatures developed by the society. Not only can he run the country for you, he can even make missiles, manage your fund corpus exceeding the GDP of a developing country- he can even move the governments to mind it’s step… and as Linda Goodman about Leos… if nothing else he can fix that broken doorknob if you marry him.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Season of Change II- Fallout or the Fear of Retribution

When BC Khanduri became the CM first time in Uttarakhand. He stopped all the developmental work because he first wanted all the projects to be vetted and see if any misdeeds had been conducted. Apparently the case of throwing the proverbial child out with the bath water.
Same thing has happened in case of mines issue – the SC has shut down all the mines. Now steel companies like JSW are contemplating shutting down the steel plants.
Question that comes to forefront is that will any political servant take any bold initiative if he stands under the constant threat of Damocles’ sword that he can be indicted at any time in future. Also how many decision makers will take even correct decisions for fear of retribution by some parties whose side they rightly did not take.
I have not seen anything about the graft giver in the bill. Should there not be something for the one who gives. Court has arrested topshot executives of telcom companies who could have benefitted by the decisions of the minister. OK the telcom cos. Paid in millions if not billions.
But is it any different than the 1% that every citizen pays when registering his land.
Or Rs.100 that he pays to the cop because his papers are not in order. Should he not be punished with same seriousness as the one who is receiving graft.

Saturday, October 1, 2011

The Season of Change- I

When the Anna agitation was about to take off I did not expect much resistance or attention from the government.I was also not very convinced that the fast will go as Ramdev's agitation. I was in fact just as hopeful as any Indian that the fast will go for about 7 days when the government will go down on it's knees and give into the wishes.
What happened was totally unexpected from all fronts and everyone acted as a tough and tougher nut to crack.Finally the war was won and everyone went happily their ways and their lives.
However from that very day I became very apprehensive on a lot of fronts and the apprehensions were difficult to put in a logical manner.
still writing them down is as good as sharing them.
Years before there was a movie by Nana Patekar called "KARNDHAAR". I think what I saw was a Hindi dubbed version of the original Marathi make, because this movie is never talked about in Hindi circles.
The movie however revolves around Patekar as a child who sees his father being killed by a local politician. So he himself grows into a true social worker fighting for the rights of the poor (not in Bollywood style). He is transformed by the political party into a politician and he degenerates himself into a normal politician till he causes the killing of a local adivasi. The movie ends with the close shot of the child of the deceased adivasi- in much the same way as Patekar's face when his own father was killed.
The point that struck me was that no political leader is corrupt from the beginning , neither he is a politician from birth. It is the society that teaches him to do what he becomes.
Similarly any person who assumes a public office or a job starts or must be starting with some optimism and idealism.Then it is the expectation of his family and the false pretenses of the society that lead him to go for the goodies of life.
Again the point that I'm trying to make is - that will it be possible for a person to remain clean and incorruptible if there are people to give him reason to be corrupt including his own family. Has it ever been that there has been no corruption in the society.Even Chanakya preaches the use of Daam in order to achieve his ends.

Now the second concern.Something that the members of the civil society are so proud to pronounce, the RTI.It has indeed brought a revolution of sorts into the country.One can get any information for Rs.20.
However a quick google will reveal that over 10 ACTIVE RTI activists (as they have about to be called)have been killed at point blank range.Most of these were involving high profile corruption cases in mining,forests,big contracts etc.
Now that brings around the question as to how and who will bell the cat in case of the actual Lokayukta or Lokpal.
It is a point worth considering- what made me come to this was when a few people said that Lokpal bill may not be the solution to all evils. Question in India is always the last mile connection.
We can deliver anything to any level but we fail to deliver to the last mile.
Let's hope this does not happen in case of the Lokpal.
Everything in India starts with a bang but ends with a whimper

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

MR.BARACK'S BARRACK STYLE PATRIOTISM

Obama says US will always be an AAA country, no matter what credit rating agencies say.

Now that is confidence and that is patriotism at it's best...whatever the world may say.
From the east of Atlantic to the west of Pacific , what ever the world may say- US would always be a stable country.
Unnecessary the economists and financial experts of the world keep harping on slowdown, meltdown and what not.Then they start whip lashing Bernanke for bringing in the UK royal in form of QE1 and QE2 and what not. They have the gall of criticizing his policies.
It takes more than a few economists(noble prize or not) of the world to write of the biggest economy, biggest democracy and the biggest spender.
Don't this naive people know that there is more to a country than the greenback that is worth less than the paper it is printed on.
All the TV channels get the top of the line economists who put their heads together and then pass judgement from their ivory towers.
You might be thinking that I've just been given the green card, hence I'm supporting the lop sided policies and hence I'm supporting US.
It's nothing like that.
It is just simple common sense and a bit of the sense of history.
There was this story about the wolf and the lamb drinking from the same river and wolf wanted to devour the soft and succulent lamb. No matter what explanation the lamb proffered for the wolf's miseries the wolf did have him.
Our recent neighbour and well wisher the US of A was the leading proponent of the nuclear tests of 1998.All the other countries like France, Australia and Canada put sanctions against us.
Come 2007. The subprime has hit US and Europe and rest of the world " came tumbling after" Jack and Jill- sorry US.
Now there is nothing that US makes that India needs.Not after we've been denied the cryo engine and the Super computer.World is already fighting against one common enemy.Pakistan cannot be trusted. So now we get sold the super NUCLEAR TREATY. All the US congress procedures are put aside and a few weeks before Mr.Bush demits office- we have the deal. Only a it late after we already have something from France.
Then we have Afghanistan that was razed to ground on the "deju vu" that OSAMA is hiding there.Country is down and OSAMA is no where- US says sorry and "aal izzz well".
Iraq decides to convert it's oil sold assets in Euros and is seen as getting closer to the proposed Iranian oil Bourse. How can we have two arch enemies bury their hatchets- Iraq is levelled- no WMD found- SORRY IRAQ- aal izzz well. Nothing personal , strictly business. Don't worry we'll put you back on your feet- with your oil; of course- purchased by us at price decided BY US- what else.
Still you think we can't take care of our economy. You people are really dumb.
We are a democracy- we don't make others follow it.If you want it - it'll have to be our style .
What?
How do you mean we'll always be AAA? Come on dummy we can even be AAAA after all the credit rating agencies are based in New York.
All the oil assets of Africa and Mid East belong to us- what is that- black gold.
These people will fight and will need more weapons- who will give it to them-we of course.
We may not be having sufficient gold in Fort Knox- but imagine all that gold lying idle in other economies around the world that you call "emerging markets". It's ours by design and default.We are the US of A.
Now with whatever sincerity may be dripping from his face; the actions taken under Mr.Barak Obama very easily betray the philosophy followed by that great country.

That is the Barrack style diplomacy of Mr.Barak Obama.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Today my Friend Santanu sent me this mail:

Rajeeve....I know n accept you are the total boss in MF.......Here we have been following the string about who owns a Merc(Sharda is yet to own one)...does owning a Merc make you successful...What defines success??
********************

I replied:

Correction Shantanu
I’m no boss of anything…I’ve simply been lucky to find this link and have been propagating to all those around me.
It gives me pleasure to see people making their nest egg methodically.
Success will be defined by a lot of people around us in different ways.
Batchmates are all talking about mercs etc. in a nice jesting way- they aren’t serious.
I cannot dare to talk about success because I have never and will never achieve it. Not in the conventional way.
Yes I’ve set out on my own trip to achieve a very small degree of satisfaction.
I like to put a smile on the face of those around us.
Giving education to the children, few minutes of conversation with the blind, prosthetics to the handicapped, a bit of company to the senior citizens all this gives me undisturbed 6-7 hour sleep at night - I think I’m successful with those .
True, I’ll never have the luxury of staying on a Santa Fe boulevard – but we’ve managed to create a Santa Fe in our own town where 118 of us stay nicely ensconced in a clearing surrounded by hills 360* around us.
I was really sad at not having met you when you came to Doon in May. If we would have met- you would have settled down right then and there.
My mission is to unite the residents of this society and I’m on my way.
You may be thinking that I’m doing something noble- but you’ll be surprised to see and hear what all my friends with only fraction of your and my salary are doing for the underprivileged .
If we achieve all these alternate goals in our lifetime- I think we’ll be successful.
There is this lone resident of Villa No.1 called VERA. She walked to our house the other day and invited us for her 86th birthday.
What is the point of my having a longlife of 85 years if you aren’t there to share it with me- that’s my motto.
I pray to god that all of us are able to invite each other on our 85th birthdays- even if we don’t meet for our 25th year of passing out.
Pls check following on Facebook, we’ve just created it: RAJPUR ROAD ENCLAVE
I think before I go “overboard”- I must stop


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BTW I still drive a princely wagon R ( of course this is the 3rd WR in a row). Not that I don’t want to own a SUV, but I feel very guilty pushing pedestians and cyclists off the road and pushing them into nooks and corners when I manipulate the narrow lanes of Dehardun which they call roads and highways and give them fancy names. After all they also have a right to a small place on the earth where they walk.
As an afterthought I can say success is to be able to die smiling without any ailments or regrets.