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Saturday, October 1, 2011

The Season of Change- I

When the Anna agitation was about to take off I did not expect much resistance or attention from the government.I was also not very convinced that the fast will go as Ramdev's agitation. I was in fact just as hopeful as any Indian that the fast will go for about 7 days when the government will go down on it's knees and give into the wishes.
What happened was totally unexpected from all fronts and everyone acted as a tough and tougher nut to crack.Finally the war was won and everyone went happily their ways and their lives.
However from that very day I became very apprehensive on a lot of fronts and the apprehensions were difficult to put in a logical manner.
still writing them down is as good as sharing them.
Years before there was a movie by Nana Patekar called "KARNDHAAR". I think what I saw was a Hindi dubbed version of the original Marathi make, because this movie is never talked about in Hindi circles.
The movie however revolves around Patekar as a child who sees his father being killed by a local politician. So he himself grows into a true social worker fighting for the rights of the poor (not in Bollywood style). He is transformed by the political party into a politician and he degenerates himself into a normal politician till he causes the killing of a local adivasi. The movie ends with the close shot of the child of the deceased adivasi- in much the same way as Patekar's face when his own father was killed.
The point that struck me was that no political leader is corrupt from the beginning , neither he is a politician from birth. It is the society that teaches him to do what he becomes.
Similarly any person who assumes a public office or a job starts or must be starting with some optimism and idealism.Then it is the expectation of his family and the false pretenses of the society that lead him to go for the goodies of life.
Again the point that I'm trying to make is - that will it be possible for a person to remain clean and incorruptible if there are people to give him reason to be corrupt including his own family. Has it ever been that there has been no corruption in the society.Even Chanakya preaches the use of Daam in order to achieve his ends.

Now the second concern.Something that the members of the civil society are so proud to pronounce, the RTI.It has indeed brought a revolution of sorts into the country.One can get any information for Rs.20.
However a quick google will reveal that over 10 ACTIVE RTI activists (as they have about to be called)have been killed at point blank range.Most of these were involving high profile corruption cases in mining,forests,big contracts etc.
Now that brings around the question as to how and who will bell the cat in case of the actual Lokayukta or Lokpal.
It is a point worth considering- what made me come to this was when a few people said that Lokpal bill may not be the solution to all evils. Question in India is always the last mile connection.
We can deliver anything to any level but we fail to deliver to the last mile.
Let's hope this does not happen in case of the Lokpal.
Everything in India starts with a bang but ends with a whimper

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

MR.BARACK'S BARRACK STYLE PATRIOTISM

Obama says US will always be an AAA country, no matter what credit rating agencies say.

Now that is confidence and that is patriotism at it's best...whatever the world may say.
From the east of Atlantic to the west of Pacific , what ever the world may say- US would always be a stable country.
Unnecessary the economists and financial experts of the world keep harping on slowdown, meltdown and what not.Then they start whip lashing Bernanke for bringing in the UK royal in form of QE1 and QE2 and what not. They have the gall of criticizing his policies.
It takes more than a few economists(noble prize or not) of the world to write of the biggest economy, biggest democracy and the biggest spender.
Don't this naive people know that there is more to a country than the greenback that is worth less than the paper it is printed on.
All the TV channels get the top of the line economists who put their heads together and then pass judgement from their ivory towers.
You might be thinking that I've just been given the green card, hence I'm supporting the lop sided policies and hence I'm supporting US.
It's nothing like that.
It is just simple common sense and a bit of the sense of history.
There was this story about the wolf and the lamb drinking from the same river and wolf wanted to devour the soft and succulent lamb. No matter what explanation the lamb proffered for the wolf's miseries the wolf did have him.
Our recent neighbour and well wisher the US of A was the leading proponent of the nuclear tests of 1998.All the other countries like France, Australia and Canada put sanctions against us.
Come 2007. The subprime has hit US and Europe and rest of the world " came tumbling after" Jack and Jill- sorry US.
Now there is nothing that US makes that India needs.Not after we've been denied the cryo engine and the Super computer.World is already fighting against one common enemy.Pakistan cannot be trusted. So now we get sold the super NUCLEAR TREATY. All the US congress procedures are put aside and a few weeks before Mr.Bush demits office- we have the deal. Only a it late after we already have something from France.
Then we have Afghanistan that was razed to ground on the "deju vu" that OSAMA is hiding there.Country is down and OSAMA is no where- US says sorry and "aal izzz well".
Iraq decides to convert it's oil sold assets in Euros and is seen as getting closer to the proposed Iranian oil Bourse. How can we have two arch enemies bury their hatchets- Iraq is levelled- no WMD found- SORRY IRAQ- aal izzz well. Nothing personal , strictly business. Don't worry we'll put you back on your feet- with your oil; of course- purchased by us at price decided BY US- what else.
Still you think we can't take care of our economy. You people are really dumb.
We are a democracy- we don't make others follow it.If you want it - it'll have to be our style .
What?
How do you mean we'll always be AAA? Come on dummy we can even be AAAA after all the credit rating agencies are based in New York.
All the oil assets of Africa and Mid East belong to us- what is that- black gold.
These people will fight and will need more weapons- who will give it to them-we of course.
We may not be having sufficient gold in Fort Knox- but imagine all that gold lying idle in other economies around the world that you call "emerging markets". It's ours by design and default.We are the US of A.
Now with whatever sincerity may be dripping from his face; the actions taken under Mr.Barak Obama very easily betray the philosophy followed by that great country.

That is the Barrack style diplomacy of Mr.Barak Obama.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Today my Friend Santanu sent me this mail:

Rajeeve....I know n accept you are the total boss in MF.......Here we have been following the string about who owns a Merc(Sharda is yet to own one)...does owning a Merc make you successful...What defines success??
********************

I replied:

Correction Shantanu
I’m no boss of anything…I’ve simply been lucky to find this link and have been propagating to all those around me.
It gives me pleasure to see people making their nest egg methodically.
Success will be defined by a lot of people around us in different ways.
Batchmates are all talking about mercs etc. in a nice jesting way- they aren’t serious.
I cannot dare to talk about success because I have never and will never achieve it. Not in the conventional way.
Yes I’ve set out on my own trip to achieve a very small degree of satisfaction.
I like to put a smile on the face of those around us.
Giving education to the children, few minutes of conversation with the blind, prosthetics to the handicapped, a bit of company to the senior citizens all this gives me undisturbed 6-7 hour sleep at night - I think I’m successful with those .
True, I’ll never have the luxury of staying on a Santa Fe boulevard – but we’ve managed to create a Santa Fe in our own town where 118 of us stay nicely ensconced in a clearing surrounded by hills 360* around us.
I was really sad at not having met you when you came to Doon in May. If we would have met- you would have settled down right then and there.
My mission is to unite the residents of this society and I’m on my way.
You may be thinking that I’m doing something noble- but you’ll be surprised to see and hear what all my friends with only fraction of your and my salary are doing for the underprivileged .
If we achieve all these alternate goals in our lifetime- I think we’ll be successful.
There is this lone resident of Villa No.1 called VERA. She walked to our house the other day and invited us for her 86th birthday.
What is the point of my having a longlife of 85 years if you aren’t there to share it with me- that’s my motto.
I pray to god that all of us are able to invite each other on our 85th birthdays- even if we don’t meet for our 25th year of passing out.
Pls check following on Facebook, we’ve just created it: RAJPUR ROAD ENCLAVE
I think before I go “overboard”- I must stop


-----
BTW I still drive a princely wagon R ( of course this is the 3rd WR in a row). Not that I don’t want to own a SUV, but I feel very guilty pushing pedestians and cyclists off the road and pushing them into nooks and corners when I manipulate the narrow lanes of Dehardun which they call roads and highways and give them fancy names. After all they also have a right to a small place on the earth where they walk.
As an afterthought I can say success is to be able to die smiling without any ailments or regrets.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

FMPs V/S CRICKET

Chief Sarda

As I had pointed out earlier gambling in investment market gives the thrill of a ODI.
However with England leading by 230 and 7 wickets stronger- it has a lesson for both of us.
1. Shift the gambling to betting in cricket and stick with regular Vanilla type investing.
Ab, as per Sanatani boss, “xxxx hona bhi band ho gaya hai”.
So give up the tantrums of twenty year olds. They have life ahead.
We only have lifetime of savings- lets safeguard them.

INVESTMENT FUNDA 2011.01.01

There was a mail from my batch mate this morning,
Quote-
Hi all,

FMP when invested from NRI account , the TDS which is deducted is claimed when u file yr nri returns. cant find a better investment than this one from the NRI account.Hassle free and almost 9 - 10% returns from NRI account.

Any special comments on this one.

The other good one I am finding is ULIPs , better than Mutual funds. you have the option of switching over , and have managed to switch over twice at 5700 Nifty levels and back again at 5500 , if can catch downwards 500 points on the Nifty you are already making 10% , this is on top of what the market is giving you year on year. This is normally done online , In case of Mutual funds you keep thinking kab bechoge , when money will come in account and when u will buy again , and if u keep on sitting on yr bum , then market keeps moving in a range and u r still there , kya bolte ho.

daily ki satte baazi to chalti rehti hai.
Das: Long time no fwds , ki ho gaya , kaam karne lag gaya hai kya......

Kaushik: kahan ho aaj kal , apna to route more or less Indonesia - Korea hai.
Kya bolte ho bhai log , how much lead will England take today , my bet is not more than 175.

***************************************
As it so happened England is presently with a lead of 236 and still going strong with 7 wickets in hand.
Now moving on to more important things, as I replied to him:Hi Vivek

1. Point regarding FMP is well taken. However if you invest for a period of more than 1 year in BSL Dynamic Bond Fund/ HDFC Cash management Fund Treasury option etc your returns will not be too different. With the added option of liquidity. In HDFC CMF you have just one day of lock in period. The former has returned 9.4 % return over 5 years and latter about 7.5%. Not too bad for a NRI. I’m getting my automatic refunds from IT every year.
2. Regarding ULIP – Sanatani has been quite vocal and I agree with him 110%. In fact after all these years why wste money even in any insurance- I’m sure our families can be comfortable even without the premium of Term Insurance . Because most of the insurances are as it is void with most of the international waters being declared as Piracy Infested. They’ll not pay a penny.
3. Finally about MFs. Pls do not, repeat do not ,churn . With a daily STP or a SIP of about 10000 (yes 10K) the returns in the right kind of funds will be enormous and will be effected by about 2-3 % over 10 years if you use too much brains and churn. Do that with your stocks if you like but not from investment point of view- only for the thrill of a ODI.
4. There is something called IRR (internal rate of return) which is very complex to calculate. But it is always in favour of an investor who puts in money very very regularly and during a fall puts MORE money.
5. The main question is when to sell? Start selling about 3 years before you retire (when is that???).In our case you can start selling methodically even after you retire since the debt corpus shall look after the period of any upheavals in the market. With the market like this one you can never time it. Check the chart of last 365 MDA and you’ll find that it was very easy to take the right steps only 2 months after the market would have moved.
6. Another very good suggestion that I can give is invest in NIFTY BEES and JUNIOR BEES. ETFs which can be more closely followed and traded the way you are intending to do. BUY low and sell high. Believe me you can do much better there. Of course not if you are deep into derivatives in which case your auditory nerves would have already closed to saner advice


BSKMH

Thursday, July 14, 2011

The Totalitarian Government 1

64 years is not a long time in the history of a nation.
However it is a longtime for historians to observe and compare various regimes and also the changing moods of times.
Not today, perhaps a few decades later we will be able to compare various politicians and times and appreciate how times changed slowly but definitively.
My generation was not there at the time of independence, however we were witness to various important events.Like the first time ever emergency in the country, censorship of the press and finally first time ever non congress government.All the set tenets of democracy that we were taught in school were challenged and they fell easily like a pack of cards.
The next decade was spent in machinations by congress and a non existent opposition with a lot long standing pillars of democracy falling.
However amongst all this there was a show, a put on by Mrs. Indira Gandhi since she was the de facto single one (wo)man government.At least she showed that she was pro people and pro poor.She seized every opportunity presented and made it appear that the government was listening.
The next decade was also dedicated to congress where the process of nation building and breaking down of the socialist fabric of the country took place.
Then various coalitions along with BJP and congress tried to put up a brave front.
However during the present tenure some very disturbing trends have taken place.
Various ministers appear to have become parallel power centers and seem to be overreaching their mandates and briefs. In fact they are mandated by the Party President- who is acting above the PM.
Furthermore, the ministers make it appear that they are ruthless in their approach and dealings with the the public. Never has any government shown a medieval feudalistic behavior more than the present one.
I have been an ardent fan of the present PM since he could be considered as the architect of modern and economically stronger India.
Unfortunately not only has he indicated a dumb and a muted approach towards various issues but also a lack of understanding of the current politik.
The absolute brazenness with which various ministers approach the problems of the general- public is amazing.
When the report card of any professional is viewed first look is always taken at the basic job fulfillment and later at the amount of resources that have been used and with what efficiency. In the case of our esteemed gentleman there is no sense in talking about fulfillment of the basic job with the FM unable to contain the finances,inflation and price rise. Minster of development unable to build roads.Agriculture minister unable to control supply and prices.On top of it everyone is going around generating controversies in fields totally unrelated to their ministries.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

FEEDBACK ON BLACKMONEY TO THE GOVERNMENT

Following email has been created by the MOF for getting nations’ feedback on black money, penalties involved in case of tax avoidance etc.
bm-feedback@nic.in
Now that creates a very interesting case.
Knowing the way government operates it is difficult to imagine that it will not try to be vindictive against the citizens who give positive response for black money.
The point is out of the people having access to email system how many are actually NOT paying income tax due to being below the taxable income level.
Which also means that how many of the people who have reasons to not pay tax on their income will be actually giving any feedback on email and ask govt. to penalize the evaders.
Now the category of these people will be very small and will include almost all small businessmen, all big businessmen, all politicians, bureaucrats , gangsters, hawala dealers, property dealers, property sellers ( that will include ALL lower and medium class citizens who cannot sell without receiving part of the proceeds in black).
Now how many of us does that leave?
My daughter told me that when the constitution was being drafted - the citizens used to given the option of commenting on various articles in discussion.
I think that was a different case.
More important is why did the government not put up the new DIRECT TAX CODE for discussion to the citizens.May be it would have got a better response.