Mariners - Safety and Asset allocation
Prelude: How fast time passes - is a cliche'.. Well not quite. It's been 2 months since I posted here. It's not that I haven't written. In fact I have written over 50,000 words but have not been able to assimilate thm in one place for people to read.
This article was written exactly 25 months ago but was probably lost to digital storage.
Whenever I have written anything in the field of finance
or psychology it has been mostly for seafarers and that has been aptly
demonstrated in the Titles of articles, books, and groups that I have formed.
The reason for my focus is mainly because to understand
the psychology, requirements, challenges of a Seafarer- I don’t have to exert
or research. From morning to evening – whether I was at sea or now on
land- I was constantly observing them and observing the commonalities and also
the differences between them.
As I have mentioned quite a few times before at various
forums the first thing that struck me was somewhat ignorance at planning for
future, and this I observed in my seniors more than the juniors. In fact, the
crew was always smarter and with their penchant to spend less and less they had
actually impressive businesses going for them. Except for a handful the
Officers were without exception into – you guessed it- REAL ESTATE or Property
as they called it. I do not remember a single person who told me that he had
sold a property and used it for consumption. But…anyway we’re going off track
here.
What I actually wish to delve upon is the topic of
retirement. This is a word that can create great anguish in a shore-based
person- depending what position he is working in. The higher the position –
greater is the insecurity. This insecurity is not so much about the financial
part as most of them have impressive pensions and provident funds and
gratuities and superannuation funds and bonuses and the works. For them it is
more about them losing the importance and social relevance once they’re off the
“seat”.
Not so much about our adroit Mariner!!!
Even at 58 he considers himself fit enough to go for
another few years. Mostly he has the same attitude to money and it’s planning
as he had on the first day at sea. Social relevance is not important to him
because he hasn’t really cared about the society so far and considered his
family to be his universe. So he is free from all those complexes that his
neighbor Chaubey ji – who is a Chief Manager in a PSU bank harbors. Is he??? Or
Is he???
A mariner in the sense of his life long association with
uncertainty and impermanence of his job always has this adhoc-ism in his life.
Because of this factor he cannot actually bring himself to think of something
of lasting value in his present or future. This is aptly clear from the
numerous queries that we come across from people regarding how much would be
sufficient for their retirement?
AND that is exactly the question that we intend to take
up in this article.
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH? And HOW are we going to ensure that
we have it.
Finally the Mariner has realised that without Equity he
has no chance of collecting enough money to fulfill the requirements of his
dependents and his own. This realization is itself a big change in the mindset
of thousands of Mariners- who so far never thought beyond the bank deposits and
Real estate. To further ease his journey and adopt this equity into his
planning, we found the new world of Mutual Funds where he could have his money
managed by paying a minuscule fee . Mutual funds eased his burden and
diversified his risk in two ways. By investing into a large number of companies
and by taking away the decision of timing that investment. The SIPs and STPs
objectified his decision of continuous investment which never happened before
as his brain was always making him keep extra amount of cash in the bank
waiting for some high-ticket expenses or an emergency. The STP allowed him to
have his cake and eat it too – when required.
During this time, he also learned that since equity is
risky he needs to keep some large percentage separately in Fixed Income or Debt
funds. Fair enough it was necessary to keep something for contingency and
risk!!!
Again, bringing back Neuroeconomics into picture- was
this risk quantified? No, it was not quantified- simply a percentage of Asset
allocation was adhered to.
Percentage? Why in percentage?
Is the duration of the risk to equity, known? Was it
known that if the Stock market went down by half – how long will it stay there.
Was the quantum of risk known? i.e., was it known How
much would he lose if the market went down at all.
In the Indian context, recorded history of stock market
is about 40 years old. So can we on the basis of such a data actually draw any
inference.
None of these questions can be answered affirmatively. So
what can be attempted to is to discuss the asset allocation between Debt and
Equity. Why? Because our GOAL should be only one- as a mariner-that our corpus
should always outlast us!
I have recently received messages of concern that should
they not go with conservative Hybrid funds which are considered safer or should
they not have more than 50% in Debt in the final years of retirement.
I consider this is a very unwise step.
In my opinion the asset allocation of Debt: Equity as
70:30 or 75:25 as recommended by Financial Advisors is quite detrimental and goes
against the whole life philosophy. The asset allocation ratio has been formed
with random figures without any thought to the actual Corpus.
Why does a person have to settle for a ratio?
For safety!
Are the debt options safe?
Aren't the debt options subject to risk of continuously
depleting interest rates.
One doesn't spend in terms of ratio but absolute numbers
and sums of rupees.
Should a person having a Corpus of 2Cr and 4 Cr have same
allocation to debt.
Again, should a person having 4 Cr and 10 Cr have same
allocation .
I personally feel it all depends upon a person's
lifestyle and family needs and dependents at the time of retirement. But it all
boils down to reserve expenses for the number of months required.
Towards that I feel... Having more than 40-48 months of
expenses is a waste to keep in debt avenues.
By short history of mutual funds in India, people have
lost more in Debt than Equity funds.
Debt is an Avenue which is more translucent, if not
opaque.
So how much you should have in debt...
For up to a Corpus of up to 1cr in retirement...90-100% (
If 1 cr is all that you have!)
For 2Cr- 90%
For 3Cr-75%
For 4cr-60%
For 5cr - 40%
For more than that 30- 20%
This corpus should never deplete!!! That should be your
only goal.
If you don't want to use this suggestion...
Just ask your spouse and think together for yourself.
I feel unless the couple sits down together no financial
plan will ever work.
Once you have read the above, you must sit down and think
about your respective situation. Consider your age, marital status, check out
your expenses for last 5 years , the goals to be achieved in before retirement.
Few days ago I had sent a call for review of franklin
Templeton schemes .
Just before this call I had redeemed my entire holding of
Franklin India US opportunities fund.
The date of transaction was 12th April. However , the funds did not come in
the bank within T + 3 period as expected.
When I wrote back to the company after a week only then were
they credited it to my account yesterday late evening.
I could have understood this delay and have normally moved
ahead as I have in the past few instances with other AMCs. But what I wish to
narrate to all of you is a disturbing incident regarding Internet transaction.
On the pretext of wrong password my account was locked and
any attempt to reset the password was sending me back to a email address/
mobile number that I used 16 years ago . There was no connection with the
present Folio which I had redeemed.
The idea of this post is to inform you about the pitfalls of
internet transaction and importance of keeping your user id and password
current.
I will suggest to all of you to following steps so that you
do not face any surprises at the time of your
redemption in case of necessity of funds.
1.
Check your email from AMC from time to time .
2.
Make test redemption of Rs.1000 now and then to
be sure of the procedure and the time it takes for various class of funds to
reflect in your bank.
3.
Write down the user id and password of all your
accounts in a notebook and keep the book safe.
4.
Check your portfolio manager (wherever you
maintain) with the SOA sent by the AMCs
from time to time.
5.
Don’t delete transaction messages and emails
from your phone and pc.
6.
Keep important messages and details on the
cloud. Better to keep them in the same cloud as your IT and Bank documents.
7.
Preferably keep one mobile and number dedicated
to finances and do not load any app except of bank, stock trading account if
you invest in stocks and AMCs.
8.
Retain at least one annual SOA of bank, MFs on
paper and keep it safe.
9.
Complain to AMC of any non compliance freely,
never hesitate.
I have been taking all the above steps already and hence am
in a better position to face the amc.
In my view Franklin is on a shaky ground.
Regards
Rajeeve Kaushik